2024 Milano-Sanremo

The Milano-Sanremo 2024 Preview: Tadej Pogacar Vs Matheiu Van Der Poel

The Milano-Sanremo 2024 Preview: Tadej Pogacar Vs Matheiu Van Der Poel

The monument men will be on the hunt for the first time in 2024 in Milano-Sanremo, March 16. We preview the course, favorites, weather forecast.

Mar 13, 2024
Pogacar Vs Van Der Poel: Milano-Sanremo 2024

The Monument Men will be on the hunt for the first time in 2024 this Saturday in Milano-Sanremo. After soaking up all the action from Omloop, Strade Bianche, Paris-Nice, and Tirreno-Adriatico, it's become pretty clear who's eyeing that spot of eternal glory on the Via Roma. And yeah, I've got our hot takes ready for you.


If you're not calling Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar the stars of the show, you might want to check your pulse. But before we get into those and the other favorites. I want to go over the course and of course the weather.

No Milan in Milano-Sanremo

The city of Milan and race organizer RCS Sport have not gotten along in recent years. We've seen that in the Giro d'Italia and last year, in Milano-Sanremo.

The country's iconic race didn't kick off from Milan, but from Abbiategrasso, and this year, the race embarks from Pavia, situated slightly south, about 36 kilometers away from the fashion capital of Milan.

Interestingly, in 2023, the peloton rolled through Pavia around the 30-kilometer mark, yet this shift doesn't shorten the race substantially. The course spans 288 kilometers, only a slight trim from last year's 294 kilometers. It does make me hope and wonder if we'll ever get back to Milan for the start.

The overall course remains largely unchanged, adhering to the traditional blueprint. Riders climb the Passo del Turchino, leaving the Po Valley behind and head to the coastline. This is where the race's stress level radically shifts upwards, leaving the flats behind, for true insanity ahead.

Driving your car on Italian roads is challenging enough, let alone racing a bike in a group of 100-plus through the small villages, around road furniture, all while on tight and twisty roads. The seaside Via Aurelia SS1 takes the riders west leading up to the Tre Capi climbs – Capo Mele, Capo Cervo, and Capo Berta. These are between 50 and 40km to race.

Now you should really pay attention, the race reaches another level. Speeding along, the Mediterranean to the left and ahead, the Cipressa and the Poggio.

The Cipressa and the Poggio

The Cipressa, climbing over 5.6 kilometers with a 4.1% gradient, presents a strategic point for distant attacks, given its position over 20 kilometers from the finish line. And here, many pure sprinters will see their hopes dashed.

The Poggio follows quickly afterwards, like the Paterberg after the Kwaremont in the Tour of Flanders. The Poggio di Sanremo climb, a 3.7-kilometer ascent with a 3.7% average gradient, peaks at 8% just before the summit. It's that straight bit before entering the town of Poggio and the narrow, winding descent afterwards – riders with 250km in their legs – that provides so much drama in Milano-Sanremo, and indeed cycling.

The descent leaves 2.2km to race to the finish line, space for the final act in this play. Long, straight stretches, with a crucial left turn at a roundabout 850 meters before the finish. The final curve onto Via Roma, the race's grand finale, lies just 750 meters from the end.

Weather Gods Smile Upon the 2024 Milano-Sanremo

For Saturday, the weather in Pavia is expected to start off mostly cloudy with temperatures around 11°C (52°F) in the morning. The likelihood of rain increases through the day, making for potentially damp conditions as the race progresses.

Along the coast in the afternoon, riders will face winds from the southwest, with speeds ranging from 15 to 35 km/h (approximately 9 to 22 mph).

In Sanremo, the afternoon temperatures are expected to be between 12-13°C (54-55°F), with light rain possible. It appears, after some harsh race conditions in the previous weeks, the weather gods will mostly be kind in the first monument of 2024.

The 2024 Milano-Sanremo Live In Canada

The 2024 Milano-Sanremo will be live and on demand for our viewers in Canada, and all sorts of coverage and content for everyone else. The race runs between 10:15AM local and a finish around 5PM, or 4:15AM to 11AM east coast time. FloBikes begins live coverage at 9:35AM on the east coast.

Tadej Pogacar & Mathieu van der Poel Clear Milano-Sanremo Favorites

Get ready for the debut of Mathieu van der Poel, the 2024 winner and Milano-Sanremo defending champion. After a bit of a hush post-Cyclocross World Championships, van der Poel has been like a ninja, sneaking in some serious prep under the Spanish sun. Rumor has it, his training sessions have been nothing short of epic. He's gearing up for what looks like a spring campaign to remember, with every pedal stroke echoing, "I'm here to conquer."

And the Dutchman's crew at Team Alpecin-Deceuninck? They're buzzing with energy. Jasper Philipsen is practically dreaming of a sprint finish on the Via Roma, while their Aussie mate, Kaden Groves, is benched with a knee issue.

Has everyone recovered from the Tadej Pogacar/Strade Bianche party? Our Slovenian friend last raced two weeks ago and destroyed the competition with an 81-kilometer solo attack. Leaving Tom Pidcock to say, WTF.

This Milano-Sanremo, along with Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Pogacar truly wants on his resume alongside winning the other monuments Flanders Lombardia. And UAE Team Emirates is pretty much putting all their eggs in the Pogacar basket. And why wouldn't they? The guy's a powerhouse.

But hey, don't sleep on Diego Ulissi and Marc Hirschi. They're poised to shake things up on the climbs. And Pogacar.. he might just pull a magic trick on the Cipressa. After Strade Bianche, we know better than to rule anything out.

Pogacar only has one problem: Mathieu van der Poel. The man who won in a spectacular manner last year. He burned his competitors to ashes – Pogacar included – just before the top of the Poggio. He started the tricky Poggio descent with a small lead, but was no longer caught and soloed beautifully to victory.

The legends will come out to play on The Poggio. Van der Poel and Pogacar will be the ones to watch, making their moves where it counts. And let's not forget Tom Pidcock, swinging into the mix before darting off to the Ardennes Classics. Who else does Ineos have? Filippo Ganna and Michal Kwiatkowski, they've had their moments, but it seems like they're hitting a bit of a rough patch.

My number four favorite? Mads Pedersen! He's been ON FIRE, winning early in 2024, and often, then in Paris-Nice... The Dane finished 2nd twice in Paris-Nice and otherwise worked his tail off for classification man Skjelmose. Is there more to it than his 6th place in 2022 and 2023? If we're talking straight up sprints, Lidl-Trek's got Jonathan Milan, but I don't think it'll come to that.

The 23-year-old giant won two stages in Tirreno-Adriatico but he did not finish in the top 100 in his previous tries at Milano-Sanremo. And former winner Jasper Stuyven? I expect he will be helping his Lidl-Trek teammates.

Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious) also shines on the honors list. After his 5th place in the Strade Bianche, he stayed away from the two traditional stage races this last week. The Slovenian has been doing this for years now and in 2022, that approach brought him glory. Once again, he has ended up somewhat forgotten but remains extremely dangerous.

Team Jayco-Alula's Michael Matthews and Caleb Ewan have still not given up hope of winning. However, Matthews left Paris-Nice on day four with stomach issues, Ewan - invisible in the sprints - had similar problems in Tirreno-Adriatico. Maybe after a great ride in Paris-Nice, Luke Plapp could discover what else he has to offer when he debuts in the classic?

Visma-Lease a Bike after cleaning house in Tirreno and Paris-Nice, is without a star option for Milano-Sanremo. Wout van Aert, the 2020 winner, is still training at altitude aiming instead for Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix.

Christophe Laporte will lead the team in an attacking small group finish. Fifth in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and fourth in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, he's going well. If things still get stuck together for a sprint, and look out for Olav Kooij in his debut ride.

Soudal-Quick-Step's options are limited. Julian Alaphilippe, winner in 2019, suffered from his Omloop and Strade Bianche crashes in the first days of Tirreno-Adriatico. On the stage four kicker stage, he only managed ninth.

Tim Merlier will not be tempted to race and focuses ahead. After the last sprint stage in Tirreno-Adriatico, the team simply said, "Tim didn't have the best day."

Team Uno-X lost Magnus Cort due to a broken thumb and will lean more on Alexander Kristoff, winner 10 years ago in 2014. Arnaud De Lie won't race, Lotto-Dstny is therefore banking on Maxim Van Gils. And we'd hoped for more from Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) in Tirreno-Adriatico, but did not give me reason to elevate him up the list of favorites.

I am keeping my eye on Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), riding alongside Michael Valgren and Alberto Bettiol, and our Canadian friend Hugo Houle (Israel-Premier Tech) with teammate Krists Neilands.

So, who's ready for an adrenaline-packed ride to the Via Roma? This Milano-Sanremo is shaping up to be a clash of titans, with van der Poel and Pogacar leading the charge.

Get your snacks ready, folks. If there's one race you won't want to miss, it's Milano-Sanremo.